Sevilla vs Osasuna prediction

Sevilla vs Osasuna prediction, who wins and at what price

Sevilla vs Osasuna prediction for the LaLiga on Monday, 26 October 2026: the model makes Sevilla a narrow favourite at 54%, with the draw at 27% and Osasuna at 20%.

Expected goals are 1.61 for Sevilla and 0.89 for Osasuna, a total of 2.50, which puts over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 49%.

The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.

Sevilla to win is the main selection, rated 54%. The best price in our comparison is 1.94 at Betwinner, which implies 52%, so the model sits 2 points above the market.

That gap is worth 3.8% on a flat stake, which makes the pick a value bet as well as a probable outcome.

Sevilla or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 80% chance, priced 1.24.

Sevilla average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded across their last 5, Osasuna 2.2 and 1.6 across 5.

Goals, BTTS and correct score for Sevilla vs Osasuna

Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 71%, over 2.5 at 45%, over 3.5 at 24%; under 2.5 is 55% and under 3.5 is 76%.

Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 55%; 1xBet pay 1.73.

Both teams to score is 49%: Sevilla find the net in 80% of simulated matches and Osasuna in 59%. Sevilla keep a clean sheet 41% of the time and Osasuna 20%.

The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 13.2%, followed by 1-1 (11.8%) and 2-0 (10.6%).

Even the leading scoreline holds only 13.2% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Sevilla, full-time Sevilla leads at 34%. A goal before the break is rated 68%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.