Stars League
Lusail CityHomeLDLW
0:0Half-time 0:0
Al ShamalAwayDDLWL252352
Lusail City winDrawAl Shamal win
Lusail CityHomeLDLWAl ShamalAwayDDLWL- Kick-off Sat 17 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.35 1.36 : 1.99
- Favourite
- 51% Al Shamal
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 66% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Lusail City vs Al Shamal
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 3.48 | 3.68 | 1.83 | 1.43 | 2.46 | 1.43 | 2.59 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Al Shamal to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Lusail City price at 3.48, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.68 and 1xBet have Al Shamal longest at 1.83.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 90.5%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.43 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.46 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.43 (1xBet) and no 2.59 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
51%
Our prediction
Al Shamal to win
Double chanceLusail City or Al Shamal (no draw)
77% chance1.20
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
65% chance1.43
BTTSBoth teams to score
66% chance1.43
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
85% chance1.18fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
10% chance10.53fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Al Shamal, full-time Al Shamal
33% chance3.03fair
Lusail City vs Al Shamal prediction
Lusail City vs Al Shamal prediction and best bet
Lusail City vs Al Shamal prediction for the Stars League on Saturday, 17 October 2026: the model makes Al Shamal a narrow favourite at 51%, with the draw at 23% and Lusail City at 25%.
Lusail City are expected to score 1.36 and Al Shamal 1.99, so the total line is 3.35 goals; over 2.5 lands at 65% and BTTS at 66%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
The pick for Lusail City vs Al Shamal is al Shamal to win, a 51% chance. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.83. That price implies 55%, 3 points over the model figure.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Lusail City vs Al Shamal.
For a safer line, lusail City or Al Shamal (no draw) covers 77% of outcomes at 1.20.
Lusail City average 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded across their last 4, Al Shamal 1.2 and 1.6 across 5.
Goals forecast for Lusail City vs Al Shamal with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Under 2.5 goals is rated 36% and under 3.5 57%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 85% and over 2.5 at 65%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 65%, best priced 1.43 at 1xBet.
Both teams to score is 66%: Lusail City find the net in 74% of simulated matches and Al Shamal in 86%. Lusail City keep a clean sheet 14% of the time and Al Shamal 26%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 66%.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 9.5%, then 1-2 at 9.4% and 0-1 at 7%.
Even the leading scoreline holds only 9.5% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Al Shamal, full-time Al Shamal leads at 33%. A goal before the break is rated 78%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Lusail City vs Al Shamal
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Lusail City vs Al Shamal, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Lusail City to win25%3.48
Draw23%3.68
Al Shamal to win51%1.83
Lusail City, draw no bet33%fair 3.03
Al Shamal, draw no bet67%fair 1.49
Double chance
Lusail City or draw49%1.79
Al Shamal or draw75%1.22
Lusail City or Al Shamal (no draw)77%1.20
Goals
Over 0.5 goals97%fair 1.04
Over 1.5 goals85%fair 1.18
Over 2.5 goals65%1.43
Over 3.5 goals43%fair 2.32
Over 4.5 goals25%fair 4.05
Under 1.5 goals15%fair 6.54
Under 2.5 goals36%2.46
Under 3.5 goals57%fair 1.76
BTTS
Both teams to score66%1.43
Not both teams to score34%2.59
Halves
First-half goal78%fair 1.28
Over 1.5 first-half goals45%fair 2.25
Second-half goal84%fair 1.19
Team goals
Lusail City to score74%fair 1.35
Al Shamal to score86%fair 1.16
Lusail City clean sheet14%fair 7.30
Al Shamal clean sheet26%fair 3.89
Lusail City to win to nil13%fair 7.94
Al Shamal to win to nil24%fair 4.24
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-19.5%
1-29.4%
0-17%
0-26.9%
2-16.5%
2-26.4%
Half-time / full-time
Al Shamal / Al Shamal33%
Draw / Al Shamal15.7%
Lusail City / Lusail City15.1%
Draw / Draw11.4%
Draw / Lusail City8.9%
Questions about Lusail City vs Al Shamal
Lusail City or Al Shamal: which side does the model back?
The model gives Al Shamal the best chance at 51%, with the draw at 23%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
Lusail City vs Al Shamal correct score: what does the model say?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 9.5%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 65% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in Lusail City vs Al Shamal?
The BTTS yes line is rated 66%. Lusail City find the net in 74% of simulated matches and Al Shamal in 86%.
When do Lusail City play Al Shamal?
Kick-off is 16:45 UTC on Saturday, 17 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.