Champions League
Matchday 4 Wednesday, 4 November 2026
Kick-off
AEK Athens FCHomeLLWLL
Wed 4 Nov
Real MadridAwayWWWWW91378
AEK Athens FC winDrawReal Madrid win
Champions League
Matchday 4 Wednesday, 4 November 2026
Kick-off
AEK Athens FCHomeLLWLLReal MadridAwayWWWWW- Kick-off Wed 4 Nov
- Expected goals
- 4.02 0.98 : 3.04
- Favourite
- 78% Real Madrid
- Over 2.5 goals
- 75% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 59% model chance
- Prices compared
- 6 in the odds table
AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 10.10 | 6.86 | 1.30 | 1.33 | 3.29 | 1.61 | 2.20 | Bet |
 22Bet | 9.70 | 6.60 | 1.25 | 1.33 | 3.29 | 1.61 | 2.20 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 9.40 | 6.40 | 1.24 | 1.30 | 3.40 | 1.61 | 2.18 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 10.10 | 6.86 | 1.30 | 1.33 | 3.29 | 1.61 | 2.20 | Bet |
 Melbet | 10.10 | 6.86 | 1.30 | 1.33 | 3.29 | 1.61 | 2.20 | Bet |
 Stake | 9.40 | 6.80 | 1.22 | - | - | 1.62 | 2.12 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Real Madrid to win partner prices
Melbet pay the best AEK Athens FC price at 10.10, Melbet lead the draw at 6.86 and 1xBet have Real Madrid longest at 1.30.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 98.6%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.33 (1xBet) and under 2.5 3.40 (BC.Game); both teams to score yes pays 1.62 (Stake) and no 2.20 (Melbet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
78%
Our prediction
Real Madrid to win
Double chanceReal Madrid or draw
91% chance1.09
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
75% chance1.33
BTTSBoth teams to score
59% chance1.62
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
91% chance1.10fair
ScorelineCorrect score 0-3
8% chance11.90fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Real Madrid, full-time Real Madrid
56% chance1.78fair
AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid prediction
AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid prediction and best bet
The AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid prediction leans to Real Madrid: 78% against 9% for AEK Athens FC, with 13% left for the draw, in the Champions League on Wednesday, 4 November 2026.
Expected goals are 0.98 for AEK Athens FC and 3.04 for Real Madrid, a total of 4.02, which puts over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams to score at 59%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Real Madrid to win is the main selection, rated 78%. The best price in our comparison is 1.30 at 1xBet, which implies 77%, so the model sits 1 points above the market.
Real Madrid or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 91% chance, priced 1.09.
The draw sits at only 13%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.
AEK Athens FC average 1.6 goals scored and 2.6 conceded across their last 5, Real Madrid 3.4 and 1.2 across 5.
AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score
On the goal lines AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid reads 91% for over 1.5, 75% for over 2.5 and 57% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 25%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 75%; 1xBet pay 1.33.
Both teams to score is 59%: AEK Athens FC find the net in 63% of simulated matches and Real Madrid in 95%. AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet 5% of the time and Real Madrid 38%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 59%.
Correct score: 0-3 leads at 8.4%, then 0-2 at 8.3% and 1-3 at 8.2%.
Even the leading scoreline holds only 8.4% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Real Madrid, full-time Real Madrid leads at 56%. A goal before the break is rated 84%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 9% / 13% / 78% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
AEK Athens FC to win9%10.10
Draw13%6.86
Real Madrid to win78%1.30
AEK Athens FC, draw no bet11%fair 9.35
Real Madrid, draw no bet89%fair 1.12
Double chance
AEK Athens FC or draw22%4.09
Real Madrid or draw91%1.09
AEK Athens FC or Real Madrid (no draw)87%1.15
Goals
Over 0.5 goals98%fair 1.02
Over 1.5 goals91%fair 1.10
Over 2.5 goals75%1.33
Over 3.5 goals57%fair 1.76
Over 4.5 goals37%fair 2.67
Under 1.5 goals9%fair 10.99
Under 2.5 goals25%3.40
Under 3.5 goals43%fair 2.32
BTTS
Both teams to score59%1.62
Not both teams to score41%2.20
Halves
First-half goal84%fair 1.20
Over 1.5 first-half goals54%fair 1.85
Second-half goal89%fair 1.12
Team goals
AEK Athens FC to score63%fair 1.60
Real Madrid to score95%fair 1.05
AEK Athens FC clean sheet5%fair 20.83
Real Madrid clean sheet38%fair 2.67
AEK Athens FC to win to nil4%fair 22.73
Real Madrid to win to nil35%fair 2.90
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
0-38.4%
0-28.3%
1-38.2%
1-28.1%
0-46.4%
1-46.3%
Half-time / full-time
Real Madrid / Real Madrid56.2%
Draw / Real Madrid18.1%
Draw / Draw6.5%
AEK Athens FC / AEK Athens FC4.8%
AEK Athens FC / Real Madrid3.9%
Questions about AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid
Who is favourite in AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid?
The model gives Real Madrid the best chance at 78%, with the draw at 13%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid correct score: what does the model say?
0-3 is the most likely scoreline at 8.4%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 75% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid?
The BTTS yes line is rated 59%. AEK Athens FC find the net in 63% of simulated matches and Real Madrid in 95%.
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid starts at 17:45 UTC on Wednesday, 4 November 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.