Istra 1961 vs Neretva Metković prediction

Our Istra 1961 vs Neretva Metković prediction and pick

Istra 1961 vs Neretva Metković prediction for the Croatia Cup on Tuesday, 3 November 2026: the model makes Neretva Metković a narrow favourite at 52%, with the draw at 20% and Istra 1961 at 28%.

Expected goals are 1.62 for Istra 1961 and 2.24 for Neretva Metković, a total of 3.86, which puts over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams to score at 71%.

The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.

Our main pick is neretva Metković to win at 52%. Bookmakers have not opened this line yet; the page shows the fair price until they do.

Istra 1961 or Neretva Metković (no draw) is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 80% chance.

The draw sits at only 20%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.

Goals forecast for Istra 1961 vs Neretva Metković with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline

Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 90%, over 2.5 at 74%, over 3.5 at 54%; under 2.5 is 26% and under 3.5 is 46%.

Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 74%.

The chance of both teams scoring is 71%, built from Istra 1961 scoring in 80% of runs and Neretva Metković in 89%; clean sheets come at 11% for Istra 1961 and 20% for Neretva Metković.

Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 71%.

Three scorelines carry the most weight for Istra 1961 vs Neretva Metković: 1-2 (8.6%), 1-1 (7.6%) and 2-2 (6.9%).

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Neretva Metković, full-time Neretva Metković leads at 33%. A goal before the break is rated 82%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.