Primera División
D. La SerenaHomeLWD
3:1Half-time 2:1
ConcepciónAwayWLLDL412831
D. La Serena winDrawConcepción win
D. La SerenaHomeLWDConcepciónAwayWLLDL- Kick-off Sat 24 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.69 1.45 : 1.24
- Favourite
- 41% D. La Serena
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 56% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for D. La Serena vs Concepción
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.22 | 3.25 | 2.91 | 1.87 | 1.83 | 1.65 | 2.13 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
D. La Serena to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the D. La Serena vs Concepción prediction: D. La Serena 2.22 (1xBet), draw 3.25 (1xBet), Concepción 2.91 (1xBet).
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 90.8%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
For the goals, over 2.5 pays 1.87 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.83 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.65 (1xBet) and no 2.13 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
72%
Our prediction
D. La Serena or Concepción (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
50% chance1.87
BTTSBoth teams to score
56% chance1.65
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
75% chance1.33fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
12% chance8.20fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time D. La Serena, full-time D. La Serena
25% chance4.00fair
First halfFirst-half goal
70% chance1.42fair
D. La Serena vs Concepción prediction
D. La Serena vs Concepción prediction, who wins and at what price
D. La Serena are marginally ahead in the D. La Serena vs Concepción prediction, rated 41% to win this Primera División match on Saturday, 24 October 2026. Concepción sit at 31% and the draw at 28%.
The goal expectancy is 2.69 in total, split 1.45 to D. La Serena and 1.24 to Concepción. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 50% and both teams to score 56%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
D. La Serena or Concepción (no draw) is the main selection, rated 72%. At 1.26 with 1xBet the market prices it at 79%, against 72% from the model.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Form check: D. La Serena have won 1 of their last 3 with 5 scored and 4 conceded, Concepción 1 of 5 scoring 4 and conceding 7.
How many goals in D. La Serena vs Concepción? Lines, BTTS and scorelines
Under 2.5 goals is rated 50% and under 3.5 72%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 75% and over 2.5 at 50%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 50%; 1xBet pay 1.87.
BTTS yes stands at 56%. D. La Serena score in 77% of simulations against a 24% clean sheet for Concepción; Concepción score in 71% while D. La Serena shut them out 29% of the time.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.2%, followed by 1-0 (9.8%) and 2-1 (8.8%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
Half-time / full-time: half-time D. La Serena, full-time D. La Serena is the top combination at 25%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 70%.
Every market rated for D. La Serena vs Concepción
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for D. La Serena vs Concepción, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
D. La Serena to win41%2.22
Draw28%3.25
Concepción to win31%2.91
D. La Serena, draw no bet57%fair 1.77
Concepción, draw no bet43%fair 2.30
Double chance
D. La Serena or draw69%1.32
Concepción or draw59%1.54
D. La Serena or Concepción (no draw)72%1.26
Goals
Over 0.5 goals93%fair 1.07
Over 1.5 goals75%fair 1.33
Over 2.5 goals50%1.87
Over 3.5 goals28%fair 3.52
Over 4.5 goals14%fair 7.35
Under 1.5 goals25%fair 4.00
Under 2.5 goals50%1.83
Under 3.5 goals72%fair 1.40
BTTS
Both teams to score56%1.65
Not both teams to score44%2.13
Halves
First-half goal70%fair 1.42
Over 1.5 first-half goals34%fair 2.93
Second-half goal77%fair 1.30
Team goals
D. La Serena to score77%fair 1.31
Concepción to score71%fair 1.41
D. La Serena clean sheet29%fair 3.46
Concepción clean sheet24%fair 4.26
D. La Serena to win to nil27%fair 3.76
Concepción to win to nil22%fair 4.63
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-112.2%
1-09.8%
2-18.8%
0-18.4%
1-27.6%
2-07.1%
Half-time / full-time
D. La Serena / D. La Serena25%
Concepción / Concepción18.6%
Draw / Draw15.4%
Draw / D. La Serena14.6%
Draw / Concepción11.7%
Questions about D. La Serena vs Concepción
D. La Serena or Concepción: which side does the model back?
The model gives D. La Serena the best chance at 41%, with the draw at 28%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
D. La Serena vs Concepción correct score: what does the model say?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.2%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 50%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in D. La Serena vs Concepción?
The BTTS yes line is rated 56%. D. La Serena find the net in 77% of simulated matches and Concepción in 71%.
What time does D. La Serena vs Concepción kick off?
D. La Serena vs Concepción starts at 15:30 UTC on Saturday, 24 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.