CAF Super Cup
Mamelodi SundownsHomeWWDDW
Sun 8 Nov
USM AlgerAwayWDDDW462529
Mamelodi Sundowns winDrawUSM Alger win
Mamelodi SundownsHomeWWDDWUSM AlgerAwayWDDDW- Kick-off Sun 8 Nov
- Expected goals
- 2.70 1.53 : 1.17
- Favourite
- 46% Mamelodi Sundowns
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 54% model chance
- Prices compared
- - awaiting lines
Best odds for Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger
No bookmaker prices stored for this match yet.
No bookmaker lines are stored for this match yet. Prices appear once the feed carries them, usually within 48 hours of kick-off for the major competitions and the evening before for smaller ones.
75%
Our prediction
Mamelodi Sundowns or USM Alger (no draw)
1.34fair
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
51% chance1.98fair
BTTSBoth teams to score
54% chance1.85fair
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
75% chance1.33fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
12% chance8.33fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Mamelodi Sundowns, full-time Mamelodi Sundowns
28% chance3.64fair
First halfFirst-half goal
70% chance1.42fair
Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger prediction
Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger prediction, who wins and at what price
Mamelodi Sundowns host USM Alger on Sunday, 8 November 2026 in the CAF Super Cup, and the model has Mamelodi Sundowns at 46%, the draw at 25% and USM Alger at 29%: that is the Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger prediction in one line.
Mamelodi Sundowns are expected to score 1.53 and USM Alger 1.17, so the total line is 2.70 goals; over 2.5 lands at 51% and BTTS at 54%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is mamelodi Sundowns or USM Alger (no draw) at 75%. No bookmaker has priced it yet, so the fair price from the model is shown instead.
Over the last 5 matches Mamelodi Sundowns stand at 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats; USM Alger show 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in 5.
Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast
Under 2.5 goals is rated 49% and under 3.5 71%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 75% and over 2.5 at 51%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 51%.
BTTS yes stands at 54%. Mamelodi Sundowns score in 78% of simulations against a 22% clean sheet for USM Alger; USM Alger score in 69% while Mamelodi Sundowns shut them out 31% of the time.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, followed by 1-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.2%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 12% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Mamelodi Sundowns, full-time Mamelodi Sundowns leads at 28%. A goal before the break is rated 70%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Mamelodi Sundowns to win46%fair 2.19
Draw25%fair 3.95
USM Alger to win29%fair 3.45
Mamelodi Sundowns, draw no bet61%fair 1.63
USM Alger, draw no bet39%fair 2.58
Double chance
Mamelodi Sundowns or draw71%fair 1.41
USM Alger or draw54%fair 1.84
Mamelodi Sundowns or USM Alger (no draw)75%fair 1.34
Goals
Over 0.5 goals93%fair 1.07
Over 1.5 goals75%fair 1.33
Over 2.5 goals51%fair 1.98
Over 3.5 goals29%fair 3.50
Over 4.5 goals14%fair 7.30
Under 1.5 goals25%fair 4.02
Under 2.5 goals49%fair 2.02
Under 3.5 goals71%fair 1.40
BTTS
Both teams to score54%fair 1.85
Not both teams to score46%fair 2.17
Halves
First-half goal70%fair 1.42
Over 1.5 first-half goals34%fair 2.92
Second-half goal77%fair 1.29
Team goals
Mamelodi Sundowns to score78%fair 1.28
USM Alger to score69%fair 1.45
Mamelodi Sundowns clean sheet31%fair 3.23
USM Alger clean sheet22%fair 4.61
Mamelodi Sundowns to win to nil29%fair 3.50
USM Alger to win to nil20%fair 5.03
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-112%
1-010.3%
2-19.2%
2-07.9%
0-17.9%
1-27%
Half-time / full-time
Mamelodi Sundowns / Mamelodi Sundowns27.5%
USM Alger / USM Alger16.6%
Draw / Mamelodi Sundowns15.5%
Draw / Draw15.2%
Draw / USM Alger10.7%
Questions about Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger
Mamelodi Sundowns or USM Alger: which side does the model back?
The model gives Mamelodi Sundowns the best chance at 46%, with the draw at 25%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger correct score: what does the model say?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 51%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger?
The BTTS yes line is rated 54%. Mamelodi Sundowns find the net in 78% of simulated matches and USM Alger in 69%.
When is Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger and where is the result shown?
Kick-off is 13:00 UTC on Sunday, 8 November 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.