Serie C - Girone C
CataniaHomeWWLWL
Sun 8 Nov
SorrentoAwayWLDDL592219
Catania winDrawSorrento win
CataniaHomeWWLWLSorrentoAwayWLDDL- Kick-off Sun 8 Nov
- Expected goals
- 2.83 1.87 : 0.96
- Favourite
- 59% Catania
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 52% model chance
- Prices compared
- - awaiting lines
Best odds for Catania vs Sorrento
No bookmaker prices stored for this match yet.
No bookmaker lines are stored for this match yet. Prices appear once the feed carries them, usually within 48 hours of kick-off for the major competitions and the evening before for smaller ones.
59%
Our prediction
Catania to win
1.70fair
Double chanceCatania or draw
81% chance1.23fair
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
54% chance1.86fair
BTTSBoth teams to score
52% chance1.92fair
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
77% chance1.29fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-0
11% chance9.09fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Catania, full-time Catania
37% chance2.68fair
Catania vs Sorrento prediction
Catania vs Sorrento prediction and best bet
Catania are a narrow favourite in the Catania vs Sorrento prediction, rated 59% to win this Serie C - Girone C match on Sunday, 8 November 2026. Sorrento sit at 19% and the draw at 22%.
Expected goals are 1.87 for Catania and 0.96 for Sorrento, a total of 2.83, which puts over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 52%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Catania to win is the main selection, rated 59%. No bookmaker has priced it yet, so the fair price from the model is shown instead.
For a safer line, catania or draw covers 81% of outcomes.
Catania average 2.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded across their last 5, Sorrento 1.2 and 1.2 across 5.
How many goals in Catania vs Sorrento? Lines, BTTS and scorelines
On the goal lines Catania vs Sorrento reads 77% for over 1.5, 54% for over 2.5 and 32% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 46%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 54%.
The chance of both teams scoring is 52%, built from Catania scoring in 85% of runs and Sorrento in 62%; clean sheets come at 38% for Catania and 15% for Sorrento.
Correct score: 1-0 leads at 11%, then 1-1 at 10.6% and 2-0 at 10.3%.
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Catania, full-time Catania is the top combination at 37%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 72%.
Every market for Catania vs Sorrento
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Catania vs Sorrento, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Catania to win59%fair 1.70
Draw22%fair 4.48
Sorrento to win19%fair 5.26
Catania, draw no bet76%fair 1.32
Sorrento, draw no bet25%fair 4.08
Double chance
Catania or draw81%fair 1.23
Sorrento or draw41%fair 2.42
Catania or Sorrento (no draw)78%fair 1.29
Goals
Over 0.5 goals94%fair 1.06
Over 1.5 goals77%fair 1.29
Over 2.5 goals54%fair 1.86
Over 3.5 goals32%fair 3.17
Over 4.5 goals16%fair 6.37
Under 1.5 goals23%fair 4.42
Under 2.5 goals46%fair 2.16
Under 3.5 goals69%fair 1.46
BTTS
Both teams to score52%fair 1.92
Not both teams to score48%fair 2.09
Halves
First-half goal72%fair 1.39
Over 1.5 first-half goals36%fair 2.75
Second-half goal79%fair 1.27
Team goals
Catania to score85%fair 1.18
Sorrento to score62%fair 1.62
Catania clean sheet38%fair 2.61
Sorrento clean sheet15%fair 6.49
Catania to win to nil35%fair 2.84
Sorrento to win to nil14%fair 7.04
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-011%
1-110.6%
2-010.3%
2-19.9%
3-06.4%
3-16.2%
Half-time / full-time
Catania / Catania37.3%
Draw / Catania18.5%
Draw / Draw13.4%
Sorrento / Sorrento10.4%
Draw / Sorrento7.3%
Questions about Catania vs Sorrento
Catania or Sorrento: which side does the model back?
The model gives Catania the best chance at 59%, with the draw at 22%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
Catania vs Sorrento correct score: what does the model say?
1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 11%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 54%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Catania vs Sorrento?
The BTTS yes line is rated 52%. Catania find the net in 85% of simulated matches and Sorrento in 62%.
When do Catania play Sorrento?
Kick-off is 13:30 UTC on Sunday, 8 November 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.