Australian Championship
Canberra FCHomeDLL
0:2Half-time 0:1
South MelbourneAwayDWDW101674
Canberra FC winDrawSouth Melbourne win
Canberra FCHomeDLLSouth MelbourneAwayDWDW- Kick-off Thu 29 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.26 0.79 : 2.47
- Favourite
- 74% South Melbourne
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 51% model chance
- Prices compared
- 6 in the odds table
Canberra FC vs South Melbourne odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 8.75 | 5.25 | 1.29 | 1.49 | 2.30 | 1.86 | 1.84 | Bet |
 22Bet | 7.01 | 5.13 | 1.37 | 1.49 | 2.53 | 1.82 | 1.93 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 7.80 | 5.00 | 1.32 | 1.52 | 2.40 | 1.78 | 1.88 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 8.55 | 5.25 | 1.30 | 1.44 | 2.42 | 1.79 | 1.92 | Bet |
 Melbet | 7.01 | 5.13 | 1.37 | 1.49 | 2.53 | 1.82 | 1.93 | Bet |
 Stake | 7.20 | 5.00 | 1.33 | 1.46 | 2.47 | 1.74 | 1.90 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
South Melbourne to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Canberra FC vs South Melbourne are 8.75 for Canberra FC at 1xBet, 5.25 for the draw at Betwinner and 1.37 for South Melbourne at 22Bet.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 96.5%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.52 (BC.Game) and under 2.5 2.53 (22Bet); both teams to score yes pays 1.86 (1xBet) and no 1.93 (22Bet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
74%
Our prediction
South Melbourne to win
Double chanceSouth Melbourne or draw
90% chance1.08
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
62% chance1.52
BTTSBoth teams to score
51% chance1.86
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
84% chance1.20fair
ScorelineCorrect score 0-2
12% chance8.55fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time South Melbourne, full-time South Melbourne
51% chance1.96fair
Canberra FC vs South Melbourne prediction
Canberra FC vs South Melbourne prediction, who wins and at what price
The Canberra FC vs South Melbourne prediction leans to South Melbourne: 74% against 10% for Canberra FC, with 16% left for the draw, in the Australian Championship on Thursday, 29 October 2026.
Canberra FC are expected to score 0.79 and South Melbourne 2.47, so the total line is 3.26 goals; over 2.5 lands at 62% and BTTS at 51%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Our main pick is south Melbourne to win at 74%. At 1.37 with 22Bet the market prices it at 73%, against 74% from the model.
South Melbourne or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 90% chance, priced 1.08.
The draw sits at only 16%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.
Form check: Canberra FC have won 0 of their last 3 with 1 scored and 5 conceded, South Melbourne 2 of 4 scoring 5 and conceding 2.
Canberra FC vs South Melbourne over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score
Under 2.5 goals is rated 38% and under 3.5 59%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 84% and over 2.5 at 62%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 62%; BC.Game pay 1.52.
BTTS yes stands at 51%. Canberra FC score in 55% of simulations against a 45% clean sheet for South Melbourne; South Melbourne score in 92% while Canberra FC shut them out 9% of the time.
The most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 11.7%, followed by 0-3 (9.6%) and 0-1 (9.5%).
With the top scoreline at 11.7%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Canberra FC vs South Melbourne; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time South Melbourne, full-time South Melbourne leads at 51%. A goal before the break is rated 77%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Canberra FC vs South Melbourne
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 10% / 16% / 74% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Canberra FC to win10%8.75
Draw16%5.25
South Melbourne to win74%1.37
Canberra FC, draw no bet12%fair 8.47
South Melbourne, draw no bet88%fair 1.13
Double chance
Canberra FC or draw26%3.28
South Melbourne or draw90%1.08
Canberra FC or South Melbourne (no draw)84%1.14
Goals
Over 0.5 goals96%fair 1.04
Over 1.5 goals84%fair 1.20
Over 2.5 goals62%1.52
Over 3.5 goals41%fair 2.43
Over 4.5 goals23%fair 4.35
Under 1.5 goals16%fair 6.10
Under 2.5 goals38%2.53
Under 3.5 goals59%fair 1.70
BTTS
Both teams to score51%1.86
Not both teams to score49%1.93
Halves
First-half goal77%fair 1.30
Over 1.5 first-half goals43%fair 2.32
Second-half goal83%fair 1.20
Team goals
Canberra FC to score55%fair 1.83
South Melbourne to score92%fair 1.09
Canberra FC clean sheet9%fair 11.76
South Melbourne clean sheet45%fair 2.20
Canberra FC to win to nil8%fair 12.82
South Melbourne to win to nil42%fair 2.39
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
0-211.7%
0-39.6%
0-19.5%
1-29.3%
1-37.6%
1-17.5%
Half-time / full-time
South Melbourne / South Melbourne51%
Draw / South Melbourne19.9%
Draw / Draw9.3%
Canberra FC / Canberra FC5.3%
Draw / Canberra FC3.9%
Questions about Canberra FC vs South Melbourne
Who is favourite in Canberra FC vs South Melbourne?
The model gives South Melbourne the best chance at 74%, with the draw at 16%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
What is the correct score prediction for Canberra FC vs South Melbourne?
0-2 is the most likely scoreline at 11.7%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 62% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in Canberra FC vs South Melbourne?
The BTTS yes line is rated 51%. Canberra FC find the net in 55% of simulated matches and South Melbourne in 92%.
When is Canberra FC vs South Melbourne and where is the result shown?
Canberra FC vs South Melbourne starts at 08:30 UTC on Thursday, 29 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.