Khenchela vs ES Setif prediction

Our Khenchela vs ES Setif prediction and pick

The Khenchela vs ES Setif prediction is a coin flip by the numbers. Algeria Ligue 1 on Saturday, 7 November 2026 gives Khenchela a 38% chance, ES Setif 31% and the draw 31%, so the value sits in covering two results rather than one.

Expected goals are 1.05 for Khenchela and 0.91 for ES Setif, a total of 1.96, which puts over 2.5 goals at 31% and both teams to score at 39%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

Our main pick is khenchela or draw at 69%. No bookmaker has priced it yet, so the fair price from the model is shown instead.

The draw is live at 31%, above the one-in-four baseline, which is why the double chance beats the straight win here.

Over the last 5 matches Khenchela stand at 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats; ES Setif show 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats in 5.

Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in Khenchela vs ES Setif

Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 58%, over 2.5 at 31%, over 3.5 at 14%; under 2.5 is 69% and under 3.5 is 86%.

The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 69%.

BTTS yes stands at 39%. Khenchela score in 65% of simulations against a 35% clean sheet for ES Setif; ES Setif score in 60% while Khenchela shut them out 40% of the time.

Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 61%.

Correct score: 1-0 leads at 14.8%, then 0-0 at 14.1% and 1-1 at 13.5%.

Even the leading scoreline holds only 14.8% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Draw, full-time Draw is the top combination at 22%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 59%.